Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 2.196756 2.328911 2.468440 2.627341 2.804050 2.995418 3.219539
2025-04-27 2.035052 2.221150 2.427672 2.676123 2.970034 3.310753 3.741902
2025-05-04 1.931233 2.150607 2.402739 2.718435 3.109853 3.588863 4.235744
2025-05-11 1.822599 2.059035 2.337771 2.697333 3.159513 3.750058 4.591969
2025-05-18 1.736458 1.984979 2.284189 2.680006 3.204944 3.902015 4.947061
2025-05-25 1.660882 1.917276 2.231455 2.656099 3.234818 4.030259 5.279737
2025-06-01 1.595026 1.856849 2.182623 2.631346 3.258010 4.147071 5.606908
2025-06-08 1.547767 1.816667 2.156291 2.632957 3.315286 4.315558 6.037730
2025-06-15 1.515340 1.793240 2.149555 2.659320 3.407992 4.544470 6.606239
2025-06-22 1.461119 1.738608 2.098027 2.619006 3.397884 4.609794 6.894255
2025-06-29 1.409949 1.685733 2.046114 2.574526 3.377110 4.654115 7.148402
2025-07-06 1.358962 1.631105 1.989315 2.519549 3.335603 4.658828 7.324319
2025-07-13 1.338027 1.616495 1.987531 2.545692 3.424490 4.897558 8.035250
2025-07-20 1.324246 1.610832 1.997630 2.589619 3.544980 5.206655 8.983250
2025-07-27 1.310087 1.603848 2.005163 2.629542 3.661590 5.523875 10.052679
2025-08-03 1.278677 1.571745 1.975205 2.609567 3.674570 5.643844 10.662404
2025-08-10 1.250273 1.542833 1.948600 2.593168 3.692018 5.774203 11.344276
2025-08-17 1.221738 1.512799 1.919142 2.570534 3.696403 5.877949 11.987168
2025-08-24 1.194554 1.483836 1.890162 2.547092 3.697355 5.974305 12.645870
2025-08-31 1.175699 1.466114 1.877100 2.548618 3.743694 6.174689 13.737230
2025-09-07 1.164086 1.458324 1.878437 2.573584 3.835301 6.489796 15.415457
2025-09-14 1.136558 1.426809 1.842908 2.535402 3.803794 6.514971 15.985569
2025-09-21 1.109214 1.394926 1.805913 2.493250 3.761978 6.511071 16.442460